Monday 11 March 2013

Cheltenham Festival - Day One


It’s here!! The next four days are better than Christmas, New Year, Birthday and Easter combined! 4 days of the very best racing around, at the best course in the country! As always it’s very competitive and there’s unlikely to be anything I’d plough into as “good things” don’t exist, but hopefully there’s a bit of value to be found!


The Supreme at 1.30pm means we don’t have to wait long for a competitive affair as this looks one of the hottest renewals in years! AP McCoy rides the very short priced (too short if you ask me!) My Tent Or Yours and thinks it is by far his best chance of the week. He won impressively at Newbury last time in the Betfair Hurdle but that was a slowly run affair and tomorrow’s race will be nothing of the sort with the strong chance of a good pace on (probably set by Champagne Fever who could make all). Though MTOY is a speedy sort and could well improve in a quicker race, there are some seriously good horses in this and at 6/4 I’d be willing to take him on with some value. Where to start?! Cheltenian has course form having won the Champion Bumper 2 years ago, but hadn’t run since until just being touched off on reappearance 3 weeks ago. He could escape the “bounce” but is unproven on soft ground so I wouldn’t want to back him. Jezki ran in the bumper last year without impressing but looks a serious horse this time around having won his last 4 races on ground he supposedly isn’t best suited by. That, however, would be the worry, as he encounters soft ground again and although proven on it having won well, Barry Geraghty has said that it wouldn’t be his optimum conditions so at 9/2 in a competitive race I’d take him on. Dodging Bullets would have probably been my pick on better ground as he has solid course form and is fairly experienced for a novice (he is also the highest rated bar the short fav), but with soft ground unlikely to suit I feel there are 3 horses worth focusing on. Champagne Fever is another Champion Bumper winner having taken last year’s race for Willie Mullins but has been a mixed bag this season. He won on hurdles debut before being touched off by a length and a half behind Jezki at Christmas giving that horse 3lb (so he may have won off level weights). His next race was extremely disappointing but it later emerged he had a lung infection, and confirmed that flop could be written off when beating subsequent winner Bright New Dawn (the pair were a long way clear of 3rd) next time out. He’s another that goes on soft but may be suited by better ground, and although I think he has a live chance (particularly with Ruby opting for him over Dodging Bullets) I think the other 2 I have in mind could have better chances. The first is Gigginstown representative Un Atout, another Mullins inmate, who I think epitomises the saying “he could be anything”. To date, he has won a bumper and 2 hurdle races, with the RP race comments for all 3 ending in “very easily”. With only 3 career starts he is open to any amount of improvement (which is exciting given he is already allotted a mark of 151!) and having proven he goes in wet conditions, the very talented Davy Russell looks to have a cracking chance to open his account for the week in the first race. He is currently around 7/1 and looks a solid e/w bet to me. The other horse I’ll have an interest on in the opener is the Oliver Sherwood trained Puffin Billy (pictured below) at 12/1 (though I’ve been with him since he was over double that!). This horse is a monster. If you put a line through his defeat last time when he had puss in his foot, he is 4/4, winning by a combined 36 lengths, and has barely come off the bridle. He is suited by the soft conditions and will stay every yard of the 2m as he could have gone for the Neptune if the ground was a bit quicker. Connections love him and although a very hot race, he looks worth an e/w saver at his double figure price.

 

The Arkle at 2.05pm is a lot more straight-forward to me: Simonsig (pictured below) wins, no bet. This horse looks different class and I’d be very disappointed if he can’t take this fairly weak renewal. Overturn is the obvious danger but Donald McCain appears to have ducked soft ground all season with his star. Arvika Ligeonniere could surprise a few as although not looking quick enough to go with the other 2, he does love soft ground so may run into 2nd as he looks to have a touch of class that the other outsiders don’t.

 

On to the first handicap at the JLT at 2.40pm looks a minefield with 24 runners going to post.  Surprisingly I actually think the favourite, Our Mick (pictured below), isn’t actually a bad price at 5/1. He ran a cracker here last year and was running a massive race when coming down at Cheltenham on reappearance last time as I’m sure he would have beaten the hugely progressive Katenko. E/w terms would return stakes back if he places and I’m fairly confident he will, with a strong chance of winning. Though I’ll probably stick with the McCain horse, there are plenty of decent e/w alternatives at bigger prices, one of which is White Star Line. He finished 2nd to Hunt Ball at last year’s Festival and is now 3lb lower so could run another big race and at 16/1 he’s a decent price. Nuts N Bolts is probably the horse I will back to go with Our Mick as I think there could be more to come from the Lucinda Russell trained 7yo. He races off a lovely 10st 8lb (lower weights always handy in testing conditions) and is well regarded by a trainer who had a winner here last season. He idled when winning narrowly last time so the result suggests he was less impressive than he really was, and at 25/1 I think he is one for a small stakes e/w saver. The other horse of note is Merry King who opts for this over the 4m race. He has been unlucky this season having been touched off a couple of times by decent horses, but should revel in this soft ground. Richie McClernon won this race on Alfie Sherrin last season and keeps the ride on Merry King as AP rides for JP, and McClernon could go very close again. I like to have a couple in Festival handicaps (you need to with 24 runners!) so may even back all 3 e/w as I feel they all have strong chances and expect more than 1 to make the frame.

 

The feature race comes at 3.20pm in the shape of the Champion Hurdle and it is no surprise to see former winner Hurricane Fly at the top of the market. He is loved by most of Ireland and trained/ridden by Mullins/Walsh so it’s fair to assume he has a strong chance. I haven’t always been a Hurricane Fly fan but I feel conditions really do suit him this year and he has a massive chance. He is very much suited by the soft conditions, but I feel even more so by the likelihood that there won’t be much pace on as there is no Overturn in there this time around. I actually think this coveted prize can only go to one of 2 horses, the other being Ditcheat inmate Zarkandar. He is a very slick jumper and is a much more accomplished horse this season having taken some nice pots along the way, particularly the Bula when beating Rock On Ruby and Grandouet. I would have preferred there to be more pace up front as it would have suited Daryl Jacob’s mount, but I don’t think the lack of such is certain to stop him and think that at 4/1 and bigger he has been the most solid e/w shot of the week as I can’t see him finishing out of the places. He is 7/2 now but I still think he’s worth a punt, and I’ve also taken advantage of the 5/1 offered by William Hill that Zarkandar and Silviniaco Conti (in the Gold Cup on Friday) both place. I think it could be the best bet of the week, and can see both winning their respective races. Grandouet has apparently not worked well this week which would put me off, though he’d have a chance on his run behind Zarkandar before Christmas. Rock On Ruby wears first time blinkers and although they don’t put me off him, the ground does. I’m hoping he tries to make all with Countrywide Flame so they go a decent clip which would help Zarkandar (pictured below). Of the rest, Cinders And Ashes won’t like the ground, Countrywide Flame I don’t think is of the same quality of the aforementioned, and the rest don’t count aside from Binocular who could surprise a few with a big run but he may find a couple too good. I wouldn’t go mad in this but may have a reverse forecast on the top 2.

 
The Cross Country race at 4pm is a race to watch and not punt for me. If I do have one for interest it will be either Bostons Angel as he looks much better this season; Any Currency as I think the trip will see him improve and he’s a nice price at 14/1; or Arabella Boy (pictured below) as I usually just side with specialist jockey Nina Carberry in these unconventional affairs.

 

The Mares Hurdle at 4.40pm is another race in which there doesn’t look to be a bet worth having. Quevega (pictured below) should win, she may not have been seen for nearly a year but never is and if she is herself then she should take this again. Une Artiste appears to love Cheltenham and is fine on the ground so could be next best (maybe worth a punt in the “w/o Quevega” market but looks a bit short in that at 2/1). The rest are decent horses but if Quevega is on a going day they shouldn’t trouble her, and although the slow pace last season meant they got closer to her than they should have, she still coasted clear and won smoothly.

 
The final race of the first day at 5.15pm is another competitive handicap chase with 20 runners, which means there should be some value about. Before the rain came, Carlito Brigante was my biggest fancy of the whole week (as previous followers will have read), but now the ground is soft I’d be looking elsewhere. Colour Squadron is an obvious “plot” for the race but his jumping doesn’t convince me and he could be found out around Prestbury Park, regardless of his seemingly favourable handicap mark, so I’d also oppose him at 11/2. The lowest priced horses I like in this are The Druids Nephew (pictured below) and Shangani at 7/1 and 8/1 respectably. The former ran a nose behind Hadrians Approach earlier in the season and that horse is running in the RSA this week so off 135 I think Andy Turnell’s horse could be nicely handicapped and he has gone in soft ground before so that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Shangani loves it soft and Venetia Williams has been on fire all season so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise should he continue to improve and go close off a 10lb higher mark than last season. However, with no massive fancy in the race it could be worth taking a risk on something at a bigger price such as Hazy Tom (16/1) or Bobowen (14/1). Charlie Longsdon has always spoken favourably of Hazy Tom and it’s worthy of note that this is the first time he is tried over further than 2m since going chasing. You would assume he wants the 2m4f as the whole season revolves around the Festival, so he could turn out to be “well in” on his handicap mark given it was earned based on his form over the minimum trip. Bobowen is more a loyal pick as I follow local trainer Dr Richard Newland, but he is not without a chance as he also seems to go better on soft ground and although running poorly at Cheltenham in October, he was progressive before that and ran well behind a good horse in a novice hurdle on his only other start since which could have put him right for a crack at this big prize. His shrew trainer has won at the Festival before and Nick Schofield is an excellent pilot so I’m hoping he’ll run a big race.

 

To summarise, although very competitive and liking a number of horses in most races, I’ve decided to go with (or the pin has decided to go with!):


1.30pmUn Atout e/w @ 7/1 AND Puffin Billy e/w @ 12/1
 

2.05pm – Small forecast on Simonsig to beat Arvika Ligeonniere


2.40pmOur Mick e/w @ 5/1 AND Merry King e/w @ 8/1 AND Nuts N Bolts e/w @ 25/1


3.20pmZarkandar e/w IF he touches 4/1 AND reverse forecast with Hurricane Fly + Zarkandar


4.00pmArabella Boy e/w @ 4/1 OR Any Currency @ 14/1
 

4.40pm – Small forecast on Quevega to beat Une Artiste
 

5.15pmThe Druids Nephew e/w @ 7/1 AND Bobowen e/w @ 12/1 OR Hazy Tom e/w @ 16/1
 

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